Thursday, January 19, 2006

The Good, The Bad and the Kinky

I am a Kinky Friedman fan. I like his books, his songs, and most especially, his Texanness. But his current run for Governor, which I at first thought was quite a laugh, is now in the position to spoil the Democrat's first real shot at the Governor's office since 1992.

Let me explain. There are no run-offs for Governor in Texas, so the highest vote getter gets the race, no matter what.

Now, in 2002, Perry beat Democratic nominee Tony Sanchez 58% to 40%. In other state-wide races that year, Democrats performed even better, some up to 46%.

Since 2002, Perry has botched a number of legeslative initiatives important to Texas, making his popularity lessen. A recent poll had Perry's favorable numbers at only 42%, with unfavorables at 38%.

So, a while back, it looked like a run of the mill election season. Perry and Strayhorn would battle it out in the primary, Perry would win, and Perry would defeat whichever Democratic nominee we tossed into the ring. The addition of Kinky Friedman sounded like fun because the Republicans were going to win anyway, why not have a good chuckle.

Then, Strayhorn announces a run as an independent instead of fighting in the Primary. The match changes overnight. Now, Kinky is poised to be the person blocking someone sain from living in the Governor's mansion.

Without Kinky:

Perry: 38%
Democrat: 42%
Strayhorn: 20%

If the Democratic nominee just matches Sanchez's performance last year, then Perry and Strayhorn split the Republican vote and the have a Democratic Governor.

BUT, then we add Kinky into the mix. Kinky will pull Dems and swing voters, in addition to the "new voters" who emerge for an independent like Friedman.

Now we have this math:

Perry: 38%
Democrat: 32%
Strayhorn: 20%
Friedman: 10%

We are left with business as usual, a Governor who cares more about his hair than with the needs of Texan citizens.

Someone needs to tell Kinky that a Democratic Goivernor would make a difference, and that he should not stand in the way.

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